Daily Killings in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The average figure of per-day murders each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that homicide figures might not signal improved national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were registered for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was also problematic because it may mask days when there were notably spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.